Is Vladimir Putin Lord of The Flies?

When the war in Syria began on March 15, 2011, Nicolas Sarkozy was president of France, and David Cameroon had been serving as Prime Minister of Britain for less than a year. 

Barack Obama had spent little more than twenty-four months in the White House when the Syrian crisis offered him his first real test in handling a Middle East conflict. Angela Merkel, the German Chancellor, was arguably the most influential leader in the world then.

The European Union (EU) seemed shaky somewhat, but remained unified. And in a tactical manoeuver designed to sidestep a political hurdle, and secure his return to the presidency, Vladimir Putin had spent three years as Prime Minister of Russia. Fast forward to 2017, and you will see fresh developments, and new leaders in power – and Putin still standing tall.

Sarkozy, who ingloriously left the political scene after losing the presidential election to Francois Holland in 2012, made an ill-fated return in 2016. He crashed out of the Republican party primaries in France in the first round. The former president came third behind rising star  François Fillon, and ex-Prime Minister, Alain Juppe. Meanwhile, David Cameroon last year vowed to resign if Britain voted to leave the EU – and that decision sealed his political fate.

As Obama prepares to depart Washington, President Bashar al-Assad is firmly in control of most of Syria, and predictably, willing to negotiate a political settlement with moderate rebels in Syria, especially after Syrian forces drove rebels out of Aleppo. Putin is basking in the glory of backing al-Assad and looking as strong as ever in Russia, which is set to enjoy improved relations with the USA after President-elect Donald Trump takes office on January 20.

The widely reported hacking row did little to dampen Putin's festive mood. In a magnanimous show of diplomatic dexterity and political assuredness, Putin has so far refused to take retaliatory measures against the USA, which expelled 35 Russian diplomats suspected of engaging in espionage activities on December 30. But he did invite children of US diplomats to a New Year's Eve party at the Kremlin.

Now, the USA is the undoubtedly the sole superpower in world affairs, but is Putin the shrewdest leader on earth? Russia has profited from the Syrian war diplomatically and financially, as the USA and Europe dither on whether to provide large-scale military support to moderate Syria rebels like the Free Syrian Army, Martyrs of Syria Brigades, Northern Storm Brigade, and Ahrar Souriya Brigade.

Sales of state-of-the-art military hardware to Syria by Russia not only strengthened al-Assad at a time many observers expected his regime to crumble, but they also brought in billions of dollars for the Russian economy, which is reeling under US and EU sanctions and low oil prices.

In March, The Kommersant – a daily newspaper published in Moscow, reported that Russia stands to gain US$6-7 billion from sales associated with the Syrian war. Putin also stands to benefit from a weakened and divided EU, as less EU influence in the northern part of Eurasia will help to buttress Russian political and economic interests.

Former Soviet states like Georgia, Moldova and Ukraine might not join the EU after all if anti-EU sentiments continue to run high in Europe. 

The influx of millions of mainly Syrian refugees into Europe has created the worst refugee there since the Second World War, and provided far-right anti-EU and anti-immigration parties in Europe, like the UK Independent Party of Britain (UKIP) and The Alternative for Germany (Afd), with a myriad of reasons to attack EU policies and gain support at the polls.

Russia has also benefited from standing by Recep Tayyip Erdogan of Turkey when a coup attempt by a faction of the Turkish army allegedly loyal to US-based Muslim cleric Fethullah Gulen failed. This support by Putin followed a boisterous diplomatic row the two countries had after Turkey shot down a Russian fighter jet near the Syrian-Turkey border on November 24, 2015.

A cessation in hostilities in Syria brokered by Russia and Turkey between moderate rebels and al-Assad – and endorsed by the UN Security Council on December 31 – could lead to substantial negotiations in Kazakhstan late this month – and further praise and influence for the Russian strongman.

Ironically, for all his deftness or alleged underhandedness – Putin stands to earn major political mileage from a Trump presidency. The Manhattan billionaire is an ardent admirer of Putin and reportedly prefers a less confrontational approach to US-Russia relations. He described Putin as a 'very smart' man after Christmas last year. Should the ceasefire deal in Syria hold firm – Trump might choose to moderate American military support for Syrian rebels in Syria, and rather bolster Israeli hegemony.

He could also seek Russian cooperation in the fight against ISIS and other radical Islamic groups. Trump, who harbours a deep mistrust of the North Atlantic Alliance (NATO), might also decide to tread more carefully than Obama in the former Soviet state of Ukraine, where Russian-supported secessionists are waging war in Eastern Ukraine.

And there is more: Trump has chosen Rex Tillerson, CEO of energy giant Exxon Mobil, as his Secretary of State. Tillerson is reportedly close to Putin and has lobbied for the removal of economic sanctions against Russia in the past.

This all bodes well for the man lording over world politics: Vladimir Putin.